Homes Appreciate Faster In Cities At Higher Natural Hazard Risk

In the 2018 U.S. Natural Hazard Housing Risk Index, ATTOM Data Solution reports that median home prices in the cities within the top 80th percentile for natural hazard risk across all categories – including flooding, earthquakes, tornadoes, wildfires, and hurricane storm surge – have appreciated by 40% on average over the last 10 years, 1.7 times the 24% average home price appreciation rate over this period. This category also posted lower than average foreclosure rates (0.21% compared to the 0.38% national average) and a lower share of seriously underwater mortgages (4.7% compared to 8.5%).
The exceptions to this trend are cities in the Very High flood risk category. In cities within the 80th percentile for flood risk or above, active foreclosures represented 0.61% of all properties, seriously underwater mortgage loans represented 8.9% of all homes with a mortgage, and home prices have appreciated by 12% over the last ten years.
“While combined natural disaster risk has not seemed to hobble home price appreciation over the past decade, the story is much different for some individual hazard risks — namely flood, hurricane storm surge and wildfire risk,” said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at ATTOM Data Solutions. “Home price appreciation in the overall U.S. housing market was double the rate of appreciation in cities with the highest flood risk and triple the rate of appreciation in cities with the highest hurricane storm surge risk over the past 10 years.”

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