MORTGAGE LENDERS PROFIT OUTLOOK TURNS POSITIVE

  • For purchase mortgages, the net share of lenders reporting demand growth over the prior three months rose significantly from the survey lows of last quarter, reaching the highest reading for any second quarter since 2016 for GSE-eligible and government loans and since Q2 2015 for non-GSE-eligible loans.
  • Demand growth expectations for the next three months also improved, with the net share of lenders reporting growth expectations reaching the highest level for any second quarter over the past three years for GSE-eligible loans and over the survey's history for non-GSE-eligible loans.
  • For refinance mortgages, across all loan types (GSE-eligible, non-GSE-eligible, and government), the net share of lenders reporting demand growth over the prior three months turned positive after being negative for nine consecutive quarters, reaching the highest reading since Q4 2016.
  • Similarly, the net share expecting demand growth expectations for the next three months continued to climb and is now positive for the first time since Q3 2016 for GSE-eligible loans and since Q1 2016 for non-GSE-eligible and government loans.
  • Overall, the pace of easing has trended down. Specifically, for GSE-eligible and government loans, the net easing share has declined to the lowest levels since 2014.
  • For the next three months, for GSE-eligible loans, the net share of lenders reporting easing expectations declined to the lowest level since Q3 2014.
  • For government loans, the net easing share for the prior three months reached the lowest level since Q2 2014 and, for the next three months, the net easing share reached a survey low (since Q1 2014).
  • Lenders' net profit margin outlook turned positive for the first time since Q3 2016. It reached the second most positive reading in survey history (since Q1 2014).
  • This quarter, "consumer demand" jumped significantly and is now the top reason cited by lenders who reported an increased profit margin outlook, reaching the highest reading since Q2 2016. The impact of "operational efficiency" declined but remained the next most important reason.
  • For the tenth consecutive quarter, "competition from other lenders" was cited as the top reason for lenders who reported a decreased profit margin outlook. "Staffing" is now the second most important reason, replacing "consumer demand."

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